Prognosticator Fact.MR predicts substantial growth in the used book market over the next decade. According to Fact.MR, the current size of the market is $14.65 billion. By 2034, they expect the size to be $23.1902 billion. That is 58% larger than today. Their CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is 4.7%. For North America, they predict a 4.6% CAGR. While we are coming off an unusual year when the rate of inflation was greater than 4.7%, it is now back around 3% and if the Federal Reserve has its way, it will get down to 2%. That means they are expecting real growth (inflation adjusted) over the next decade. Not bad for a product that many were writing off as having no future, whatever books that did survive the long run to be sold in electronic, e-book form.
Of course, used books encompasses a much larger universe than rare or collectible books. If you look at the major book selling sites, you will find most of what is offered is low-priced old books, mainly meant for reading or study. However, while that is true of the total number of books sold, the percentage of the dollar volume attributable to rare, antiquarian, and collectible books is much higher. We do not know the breakdown of those figures, but based on auction sales, where for the most part only collectible books are sold, the average price last year for books and associated collectibles was $1,863. The more conservative median price was $293. What is the average price of the typical used book, sold online, in used book stores, library fairs and the like where volume is high? I don't know. Maybe $10 or $20, possibly even less? Every collectible book sold counts for more of the dollar volume than a hefty box of ordinary used ones.
The report notes that many people buy secondhand books to save money (which is not why they buy rare books). But, it then goes on to point out, “The market is also driven by the demand for rare editions, which appeal to collectors and those looking for one-of-a-kind copies.” Later on, they say, “In the coming decade, from 2024 to 2034, North America is poised to experience a substantial boost in revenue. The resurgence of interest in vintage and collectible books has created a niche market within the second hand book industry. This trend is driven by a desire for unique editions and the charm of owning books with a rich history.”
In a separate report, Allied Market Research predicted an even larger growth rate for the comic book market, estimating it would rise from $15.5 billion in 2022 to $26.9 billion in 2032, growth of 74% or a CAGR of 5.9%. This includes new comic books.
So, is Fact.MR right with their predictions? I have no personal familiarity with them, but based on their list of clients, one would think they are reputable and reasonably good at what they do. Still, predicting the future is an inexact science. Even experts get things wrong. Just look at the expert stock market prognosticators and all you can say is the good ones get it right more often than wrong. Anything can happen in the next ten years, and some of it certainly will. Nevertheless, it is good to see that the arrows are pointing in the right direction for the field, because so many people have been down on it. If new collectors continue to enter the field, as they evidently believe, our history and culture, so tied up in the printed word, will not be cast aside.
